The news moves the region closer to double-digit inflation for the first time since the introduction of the euro in 1999. In recent months the UK, along with many countries worldwide, has felt the impact of inflationary headwinds as a result of soaring energy prices, a squeeze in the post-pandemic global supply chain and the war in Ukraine. A drop in European wholesale energy prices combined with an easing in supply chain bottlenecks has recently raised hopes that eurozone inflation is starting to ease, despite increases in food prices. Countries around the world are continuing to fight inflationary pressures caused by a damaging cocktail of economic factors. These range from soaring energy prices – exacerbated by the war in Ukraine – to a series of supply chain bottlenecks resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.
This means the Fed’s target funds rate continues to stand in a range between 5% and 5.25%, its highest level since 2007. The move takes eurozone trading bloc interest rates to their highest level in 22 years as the ECB battles persistently high inflation. Earlier this week, the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that 1.4 million mortgage holders, half of them aged under 40, could lose more than 20% of their disposable income as interest rates continue to rise.
- Earlier this month, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the eighth time in less than year, piling extra financial pressure on to the UK’s two million households with variable rate mortgages.
- Market watchers had hoped the Fed would start to ease borrowing costs as early as the spring, although today’s hiked inflation numbers may scupper that possibility.
- However, over the year to October 2023, the Bureau said that core CPI rose by 4%, the smallest 12-month uptick since September 2021.
- The economic contraction in the second quarter may influence the Bank when it meets in September to decide whether to increase the Bank interest rate from its present 1.75%.
Investors also use the dollar index as a litmus test for U.S. economic performance, particularly when it comes to imports and exports. The more goods the U.S. exports, the more international demand there is for U.S. dollars to purchase those goods. The Federal Reserve established the dollar index in 1973 to track the value of the U.S. dollar. Two years earlier, President Richard Nixon had abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the value of the dollar to float freely in foreign exchange (forex) markets. The USDX uses a fixed weighting scheme based on exchange rates in 1973 that heavily weights the euro.
May: Monthly Rate Of Increase Slows To 0.25pps
CPI including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.3% in the year to August, down from 6.4% a month earlier. “However, just as markets were concerned when inflation spiked last year, they will be equally concerned about the future path of inflation and what happens next. As inflation has come down, it has become incredibly stubborn once again and is not likely to reach its target for some time. The latest wage figures offer little evidence that pressures in the labour market are easing, posing a challenge for Bank of England interest rate setters when they next meet on 2 November. Annual growth in employees’ average total pay, including bonuses, stood at 8.1% between June and August, down from 8.5% a month earlier. The ONS said this figure was affected by one-off payments made to civil servants and NHS staff over the summer.
October: Market Intervention Extended To Index-Linked Gilts
US inflation eased to 4.9% in the year to April, down from 5% recorded a month earlier, suggesting that the interest rate-hiking policy by the Federal Reserve is having the desired effect of damping down rising prices, writes Andrew Michael. Today’s inflation figure remains well above the Bank of England’s medium-term target of 2% and is markedly higher than that of other major economies. The latest inflation figure from the US showed that prices were rising by 4% on an annual basis, while the equivalent figure for the Eurozone trading bloc covering most of Continental Europe stands at 6.1%.
June: All Eyes On Bank Of England After US Fed And ECB Moves
Oil traders were caught by surprise by the EIA build of stockpile by 1.234 million barrels. The Japanese Yen lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. Geopolitical risks, China’s economic woes and the ongoing decline in the US bond yields benefit the JPY. The USD remains supported by reduced bets for a March Fed rate cut and helps limit losses for USD/JPY.
October: Further ECB Hikes Expected In Battle To Stem Inflation
The Fed’s top priority in 2022 has been bringing down inflation from multi-decade highs, and its best weapon has been raising interest rates. In fact, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has issued three consecutive large rate hikes of 75 basis wpf grid dynamic rows points. The Bank of England has warned that inflation could ‘comfortably exceed 5%’ in the next few months, when energy regulator Ofgem puts up its energy price cap in April 2022, raising the cost of energy bills for millions of UK households.
The Bank of England has hiked its Bank Rate today by 0.5 percentage points from 4.5% to 5%, its highest level in 15 years, writes Andrew Michael. Inflation in the US stands at 3% in the year to June, comparing favourably with the 7.9% annual rate seen in the UK this month. Today’s decision takes effect from 2 August, pushing the cost of borrowing within the eurozone to the record high last reached in 2001 when the ECB attempted to boost the value of the newly-launched euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) is raising interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, increasing its deposit rate to 3.75%, while hiking its main refinancing option to 4.25%, writes Andrew Michael. Inflation for food and non-alcoholic drinks in July fell to 14.9% from 17.4% in June, meaning that grocery prices are still hurtling upwards, albeit at a slower rate. CPI including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 6.4% in the year to July, down from 7.3% recorded in June this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by over 530 points to 32,291 while the S&P 500 rose by almost 3% to 4,037. The BoE also predicted that inflation could remain at “very elevated levels” throughout the course of next year. News of an imminent recession will come as a further blow to the swathes of households already struggling under mounting cost of living pressures.
The higher interest rates rise, the more demand for the dollar there is from international investors seeking yield. The steep climb in the cost of living is blamed on the increase in the domestic energy price cap on 1 October, rising forecourt pump prices and inflationary pressures across the economy as companies struggle with increases in the cost of raw materials. The consumer price index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 6.2% in the 12 months to February, up from 5.5% the previous month, its highest level since 1992. If confirmed, a rise in the UK bank rate could prove costly to households with variable rate and tracker mortgages as lenders tend to increase repayments to reflect higher borrowing costs.
The Bank of England (BoE) today raised its Bank rate of interest from 0.75% to 1%, in a bid to counter the UK’s soaring inflation rate. The drop in US CPI may be welcomed by markets with investors starting to hope that peak inflation has now passed. Earlier this week, Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, stepped up warnings to the oil and gas industry that, unless companies soon announced increased investment plans for the UK, they could face a potential windfall tax on https://traderoom.info/ their profits. Your personal financial situation may be impacted more – or less – than the headline rate of 9%. These are factors outside the control of the Bank of England (BoE), which sets interest rates, meaning stretched consumers have little option but to cut back outgoings so they can live within their means. Recent figures from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) predict a worsening situation with real disposable income dropping 2.4% this year.
Last night, the US Federal Reserve also imposed a 0.5 percentage point rise on its Funds Rate, taking it to a range between 4.25% and 4.5% (see story below). The European Central Bank (ECB) also announced today that it will raise its main borrowing cost by 0.5 percentage points, from 2.5% to 3%, with effect from 8 February, in a bid to reduce inflation across the Eurozone. Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve – the Bank of England’s equivalent – imposed a 0.25 percentage point rise on its Funds Rate, taking it to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% (see story below). The All-Items Consumer Price Index, produced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, represents the smallest 12-month increase since October 2021.
The top-paying fixed interest bonds are paying over 5%, according to our savings partner Raisin, with over 40 such accounts paying over 4%. However, money needs to be locked away for periods starting at six months to qualify for such a rate. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted by six votes to three to maintain the Bank Rate at a 16-year high.
“The dollar tends to weaken when rates decline, supporting the earnings of companies with offshore operations. This is especially important for the large-cap tech sector, which is both the largest weighting in the S&P 500 (28 percent) and is the only group to generate more than half its revenues outside the US,” Colas says. With the U.S. economic outlook for 2023 uncertain, the path forward for the U.S. dollar could have significant implications for inflation, international trade, technology stocks and fiat currency alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin (BTC). Gold price gathered bullish momentum and rose to its highest level since early January above $2,060.